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Each morning I challenge FiveThirtyEight’s Raptor predictions1 and compare them against some super-simple benchmarks. Updated Sun, Apr 25 06:31 AM.
Upcoming Games
Upcoming games for the home team’s win probability. Blue represents an expected win for the home team (score > 50%) and orange/red represents an expected loss. elo is the FiveThirtyEight model and V02 is my model.
Last Three Day’s Predictions vs. Results
The home team win’s probability is colored green if the model correctly predicted the home team winning.
Projected Record
I estimate the team’s final record and compare that to FiveThirtyEight’s projections.
Seasonal Model Accuracy
This section compares how accurate my models are with FiveThirtyEight’s.
Up to Today
| Home Team Benchmarks | |
| Win Rate | 0.551 |
| Home % | 0.620 |
| Home % > Away % | 0.637 |
| My Models | |
| v01 | 0.652 |
| v02 | 0.658 |
| Five Thirty Eight | |
| elo | 0.656 |
| carm-elo | 0.658 |
| raptor | 0.656 |
- Win Rate: How often does the home team win?
- Home %: How often does the home team win when its win % before the game was more than 50%? (A home team with a record of 53% is predicted to win, butwith a record of 49% is predicted to lose.)
- Home % > Away %: If the home team’s win % is greater than away team’s win %, the home team is predicted to win. Otherwise, they’re predicted to lose. E.g., if home win % = 0.39 and away win% = 0.40, I predict the away team will win.
- v01: I build my own model.
- V02: Version 2 of my model.
Model Calibration
How well do the model’s predictions align with true probabilities? A prediction of 70% should win 70% of the time. You’d expect that if the model probability ranges between 40-50%, the home team should win 40-50% of the time. If the model probability ranges between 90%-100%, you’d expect the home team to win 90-100% of the time. Black line represents true probability
Model Accuracy By Week
FiveThirtyEight’s predictions are updated daily and can be downloaded here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-model/nba_elo_latest.csv.↩︎