NBA Predictions

Comparing my models against FiveThirtyEight

Table of Contents

Each morning I challenge FiveThirtyEight’s Raptor predictions1 and compare them against some super-simple benchmarks. Updated Sun, Apr 25 06:31 AM.

Upcoming Games

Upcoming games for the home team’s win probability. Blue represents an expected win for the home team (score > 50%) and orange/red represents an expected loss. elo is the FiveThirtyEight model and V02 is my model.

Last Three Day’s Predictions vs. Results

The home team win’s probability is colored green if the model correctly predicted the home team winning.

Projected Record

I estimate the team’s final record and compare that to FiveThirtyEight’s projections.

Seasonal Model Accuracy

This section compares how accurate my models are with FiveThirtyEight’s.

Up to Today

Home Team Benchmarks
Win Rate 0.551
Home % 0.620
Home % > Away % 0.637
My Models
v01 0.652
v02 0.658
Five Thirty Eight
elo 0.656
carm-elo 0.658
raptor 0.656

Model Calibration

How well do the model’s predictions align with true probabilities? A prediction of 70% should win 70% of the time. You’d expect that if the model probability ranges between 40-50%, the home team should win 40-50% of the time. If the model probability ranges between 90%-100%, you’d expect the home team to win 90-100% of the time. Black line represents true probability

Model Accuracy By Week

  1. FiveThirtyEight’s predictions are updated daily and can be downloaded here:↩︎