COVID-19 Doubles Every Two Days. Everywhere.

Hey US: Stay home, or become Italy. Written 3/17 9:43pm PST.

Table of Contents

Quick Facts

The warning is clear: COVID-19 is rising exponentially in the US.

If we don’t learn the lessons other countries have, we’ll repeat their recently-learned history. Staying home saves lives.

While China was the first to get hit by COVID-19, everyone else is actually on a similar growth trajectory (unless we take action #stayhome!). The US was in a lull for many weeks, probably because access to and from China was wisely halted. But then cases came in from other sources. We failed to contain. We failed to prepare. Now, we’re past containment.

This graph shows how many confirmed cases there have been in the world relative to days since the country first observed an onset. Day 0 is the first day a case was reported.

COVID-19 Doubles Really Fast, Regardless of Country

No matter how long it takes a country to hit 500 cases, they all double at the same rate thereafter.

Italy hit it’s 500th case on day 28 of being exposed. It then doubled in 2 days. Then again. Then again.

The US didn’t hit it’s 500th case until day 47 of the virus being in the US. This was 47 days of a false sense of security. This was 47 days we all watched China double exponentially. Now we are doubling.

There are eight countries that have hit 4,000 cases as of March 16, 2020. It takes about 1-3 days for the virus to double, regardless of the country it’s been present in.

Looking at countries that have had at least 500 cases so far, we can see how the US is in trending with other countries, especially Italy. As of 3/17 there are 19 countries that have at least 500 cases. I’m guessing many of these will have to go into total lockdown to avoid the exponential growth.

To hone in on the trends, we see that the US is just ten days behind Italy.

If you just shift the green trend to the left by one day, you’ll notice they align perfectly. We’re on the same trajectory as Italy.

Other countries in Europe are on the same trend.

Stay Home!

Read the headlines. If we don’t take action, we’ll be in the same position.